Austrasse 56 · P.O. Box 452

Key information

  • Publication date:07 July 2025
  • Workload:100%
  • Contract type:Unlimited employment
  • Place of work:Vaduz
  • Salary estimate from jobs.ch:Log in, to see estimate from jobs.ch

Job summary

IMT Asset Management AG provides insights into economic shifts.

Tasks

  • Analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on markets.
  • Assessing global equity market fluctuations and trends.
  • Monitoring fiscal policies and their effects on investments.

Skills

  • Strong background in finance and economic analysis required.
  • Proficient in risk assessment and portfolio management.
  • Excellent analytical skills and market knowledge essential.

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IMT Asset Management AG
Austrasse 56 · P.O. Box 452
9490 Vaduz, Liechtenstein E-Mail schreiben · www.imt.li

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
04.2020
18 April 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic came as a surprise to all of us. The lockdown and social distancing measures put an abrupt stop to economic activity, which will lead to unprecedented falls in GDP figures. As a result, we have observed the fastest equity sell-off in history. Global equity markets dropped by more than 30% in only 22 days. The outlook for the economy and financial markets remains highly uncertain, although equity markets have rallied in recent weeks. The policy response is unparalleled, with fiscal and monetary support programs by far exceeding any past policy measures. We remain cautiously positioned due to the extremely high levels of uncertainty and the risk of renewed market disruptions. Nevertheless, we may use future market weakness to re-risk our portfolios. Thomas Trauth
CEO - IMT Asset Management AG IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
COVID-19 PANDEMIC
hedging properties. Gold then recovered and is cur- Financial markets rently trading at around USD 1,690. We have observed the fastest sell-off in history. Eq- In addition to the Covid-19 crisis the market was uity markets fell by more than 30% within 22 days. shocked when, on 6 March, talks between OPEC and From the peak reached by the markets on 19 Febru- Russia failed to agree on new oil output cuts. As a reary to the trough on 23 March the S&P500 index, for sult, the oil market collapsed as rising supply met a example, lost 34%. Since then the markets have resharp drop in demand. The price for Brent oil, for exbounded strongly and gained 27%. This brings yearample, dropped by more than 60% in March. to-date performance to -12%. Also, REITS were hit hard as concerns about the ability As expected, the more defensive Swiss SMI index outof tenants to pay their rent mounted. performed during the sell-off, while the European eq- Volatility in the currency markets rose strongly. The uity index, with a high weight of cyclical stocks and EUR/USD exchange rate underwent unusually strong financials, experienced the biggest loss. Energy stocks fluctuations. The EUR weakened against the USD, the and financials underperformed. On average, emerg- CHF and the JPY and appreciated against most other ing markets performed in line with developed marcurrencies, especially against commodity and emergkets. China was a clear outperformer, however, while ing markets currencies. the Indian Nifty 50 and the Brazilian Ibovespa, for example, were hit hardest due to concerns about their Macroeconomics countries' handling of the Covid-19 crisis. The lockdown and social distancing measures intro- Interest rates fell sharply, because of concerns about duced in almost all developed countries are tantathe depth of the recession and decisive central bank mount to an emergency braking. In many sectors, esactions. However, it seems that European yields had pecially travel and hospitality, activity virtually little scope to drop further, below the -1% level. This stopped altogether. March PMIs fell but may not yet may suggest that going forward government bonds reflect the full impact. You do not have to be a may not provide the desired protection if the crisis prophet to expect catastrophic growth indicators for should further accelerate. Credit spreads widened the coming months. significantly, and the credit markets dried out. Trad- Non-farm payrolls in the USA declined by 701,000. US ing activities almost stopped completely in certain initial jobless claims shot up to a staggering 6.6 m for segments of those markets. In April, however, credit the week of 3 April, after 6.8 m and 3.3 m in the weeks markets rebounded somewhat. before. Meanwhile, the Chinese PMI recovered to The gold price fluctuated greatly. When the crisis hit, 50.1 following a sharp drop to 40.3 in February, regold initially sold-off and fell from around USD 1,680 flecting the fact that China was the first country to reto as low as USD 1,470 on 19 March when equity marlax its lockdown measures. kets hit their lows. Therefore, gold failed to display its - 2 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
The March inflation figures dropped sharply. US the majority of companies can be kept afloat, ecoheadline inflation fell to 1.5% after 2.3%, and EMU innomic activity is more likely to pick up swiftly. If, howflation dropped to 0.7% after 1.1%. This reflects the ever, a large number of companies were to go under, deflationary nature of the current crises, reinforced unemployment would rise permanently and we by falling energy prices. As a result, 10-year breakwould see severe damage in bank balance sheets and even inflation rates, i.e., market-implied long-term inpossibly in real estate markets. In such a case, ecoflation expectations, fell significantly below 1% in the nomic damage would be huge and it would take many US and came close to zero in Europe. years to repair balance sheets and to rebuild economic structures. Monetary and fiscal policy response The duration of the lockdown measures depends on The fiscal response in the major developed countries how well we can contain the spread of the corona viwas swift and decisive. The US, the EU, the UK, and rus. Currently the number of CORVID-19 cases stands Japan announced fiscal packages which in total at 2.2 m worldwide, which is an extremely small peramount to USD 3.2 tn in 2020. This equals about 10% centage of the world population. In our view, there of GDP. The US fiscal deficit could be as high as 15% are only two possible sustainable solutions. this year. The first solution is to find a vaccine. While a lot of Fiscal measures were accompanied by aggressive effort is currently being put into research and initial monetary easing. All major central banks cut rates. human trials are taking place, it will take many more The US Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the months of intense work to develop a vaccine. It will Bank of Japan announced the purchase of assets tothen take many months again to create the global taling a staggering USD 6.8 tn. The US Fed alone production capabilities needed. bought USD 4 to 5 tn of assets. The ECB announced The second solution is to create herd immunity. Once its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) 50-60% of the population has had the virus and thus worth EUR 750 bn. Effectively, central banks are prebecome immune, the threat will diminish. However, pared to backstop upcoming sovereign bond issusince we need to control and slow the spread of the ance. virus in order to prevent the health system from col- Fiscal as well as monetary measures by far exceed the lapse, and given the exceptionally low number of comeasures taken in 2008 and 2009 during the global rona cases, it will take years to achieve herd immunfinancial crisis. ity. As a result, we think that for the foreseeable future Outlook we will be faced with the threat that the spread of the A global recession has become reality overnight. Now virus may again accelerate. Especially after lockdown the major question is, will the economy be able to remeasures are relaxed, we may be faced with second cover swiftly or will we plunge into a global depreswaves. sion? A depression is defined as a sustained long- As a result, we continue to see major uncertainties term downturn of economic activity, in contrast to a about the future course of the economy and financial recession, which has an average duration of 11 markets. The recent equity market rally suggests that months. market participants expect a smooth economic re- The answer to this question largely depends on the covery. length of the lockdown and whether the policy We believe that we will be able to avoid a global demeasures will prevent a large wave of insolvencies. If pression and that policy measures will prevent the - 3 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
worst. We foresee a recovery of the global economy For these reasons we believe that it would be premain the fourth quarter of 2020 and in 2021. But this ture to raise the equity allocation. We are observing scenario is fraught with considerable unforeseeable the situation carefully and as it becomes more stable, risks. One such might be a second wave of infections we will gradually increase the levels of portfolio risks after the initial restrictions have been lifted. Thereor realize gains on our equity hedge. fore, we also believe that we will be faced with further setbacks and disappointed expectations. - 4 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
ECONOMICS
The lockdown and social distancing measures introreflect the full impact. US non-farm payrolls declined duced in almost all developed countries are tantaby 701,000. US initial jobless claims shot up to a stagmount to an emergency braking. In many sectors, esgering 6.6 m for the week of 3 April. Meanwhile, the pecially travel and hospitality, activity has virtually Chinese PMI recovered to 50.1 following a sharp drop stopped altogether. March PMIs fell but may not yet to 40.3 in February. Fig. 1: PMIs
Fig. 2: PMIs
70
70
Japan
China
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
US
EMU
Switzerland
40
35
12/17
12/18
12/19
12/17
12/18
12/19
Fig 3: Consumer price inflation, in % YoY Fig. 4: Consumer price inflation, in % YoY 4.0
6.0
US
EMU
Switzerland
Japan
China
3.0
4.0
2.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
  • 1.0
  • 2.0
-2.0
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 5: Unemployment rates, in % Fig 6: US labor market
4.0
500
12
3.5
250
10
8
3.0
0
6
2.5
-250
4
2.0
-500
2
Avg. hourly earnings, % YoY, lhs US
EMU
Switzerland
Chg. US non-farm payrolls, '000, rhs 0
1.5
-750
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 - 5 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
FIXED INCOME
Interest rates fell sharply, due to concerns about the the desired protection if the crisis should further acdepth of the recession and decisive central bank accelerate. Credit spreads widened markedly, and the tions. However, it seems that European yields had litcredit markets dried out. Trading activities almost tle scope to drop further, below the -1% level. This stopped completely. In recent days, credit markets may suggest that government bonds may not provide have rebounded. Fig.7: 2Y government bond yields Fig. 8: 10Y government bond yields 4.0
4.0
US Treasury
Bund
Swiss
US Treasury
Bund
Swiss
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-2.0
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 9: 10Y break-even inflation Fig. 10: Credit spreads, 5Y credit default swaps 2.5
800
High Grade
High Yield
Emerging Markets
2.0
600
1.5
400
1.0
200
0.5
0
US
German
0.0
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 11: Money market spreads (3M-2Y) Fig 12: Merrill Lynch volatility index (MOVE) 1.0
180
0.5
140
0.0
100
  • 0.5
    60
  • 1.0
US
Euro
Swiss
20
-1.5
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 - 6 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
EQUITIES
We observed the fastest sell-off in history. Equity stocks and financials underperformed. Emerging markets fell by more than 30% within 22 days. As exmarkets performed in line with developed markets on pected, the more defensive Swiss SMI index outperaverage. However, China was a clear outperformer, formed during the sell-off, while the European equity while, the Indian Nifty 50 and the Brazilian Ibovespa, index, with a high weight of cyclical stocks, for examfor example, were hit hardest due to concerns about ple financials, experienced the biggest losses. Energy their countries' handling of the Covid-19 crisis. Fig. 13: MSCI equity indices - major regions Fig.14: Equity indices - major developed markets 110
110
100
100
90
90
Developed markets
80
80
S&P500
Emerging markets
EuroStoxx50
70
70
Nikkei
Frontier markets
SMI
60
60
12/19
01/20
02/20
03/20
12/19
01/20
02/20
03/20
Fig 15: Equity indices - major emerging markets Fig. 16: Sector performance, MSCI Europe, 2018 110
EU US -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 100
Cons. disc.
Cons. staples
90
Energy
CSI 300
Finance
80
Real Estate
Nifty 50
Health
70
Industrials
Ibovespa
Inf. techn.
60
Material
Moex
Telco
50
Utilities
12/19
01/20
02/20
03/20
Fig 17: Price-earnings ratios Fig 18: Equity volatility - S&P500 VIX index 20
90
80
18
70
60
16
50
40
14
30
20
12
10
S&P500
MSCI EU
0
10
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 - 7 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
The gold price fluctuated greatly. When the crisis hit, OPEC+ talks failed, rising oil supply coincided with a gold initially sold-off and fell from around USD 1,680 sharp drop in demand. The price for Brent oil, for exto as low as USD 1,470 on 19 March, when equity ample, dropped by more than 60% in March. Also markets hit their lows. Gold then recovered and is REITS were hit hard as concerns about the ability of currently trading at around USD 1,690. After the tenants to pay their rent mounted. Fig. 19: Gold price, USD/oz
Fig.20: Brent oil price, USD/bl 1800
100
1700
1600
80
1500
1400
60
1300
1200
40
1100
1000
20
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 21: Bloomberg commodity indices Fig. 22: HFRU hedge fund indices 140
Composite
110
Industrial Metals
120
Energy
105
100
100
80
95
60
UCITS Composite
40
90
Global Macro
Equity market neutral
20
85
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 23: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT global REITS index Fig 24: LPX global listed private equity 2600
3400
2400
3000
2200
2600
2000
2200
1800
1800
1600
1400
1400
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 - 8 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
CURRENCIES
Volatility in the currency markets rose strongly. The other currencies, especially against commodity and EUR/USD exchange rate underwent unusually strong emerging markets currencies. fluctuations. While the EUR weakened against the USD, the CHF and the JPY, it appreciated against most Fig. 25: EUR-USD exchange rate Fig. 26: GBP-USD exchange rate 1.25
1.6
1.20
1.5
1.15
1.4
1.10
1.3
1.05
1.2
1.00
1.1
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 27: USD-JPY exchange rate Fig. 28: USD-CNY exchange rate 130
7.5
120
7.0
110
6.5
100
6.0
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 Fig 29: EUR-CHF exchange rate Fig 30: USD-CHF exchange rate 1.25
1.1
1.20
1.15
1.0
1.10
1.05
0.9
1.00
0.95
0.8
12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 - 9 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
ASSET ALLOCATION
Despite a strong start into 2020, risky assets sold currencies, like CHF and JPY, gained, while comoff dramatically after 19 February. Year-to-date almodity and emerging markets currencies experimost all asset classes show clear losses, except for enced the biggest losses. government bonds and gold. Commodities, especially industrial metals and oil also fell. Safe-haven Fig. 31: Performance of major asset classes, based on our EUR portfolio strategy -30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Fixed Income
Cash, EUR
Global Government, EUR
Inflation-linked, EUR
Investment grade, EUR
Insurance-linked
High yield
Emerging markets, USD
Emerging markets, LC
Convertibles
Convertibles, EUR
Equities
MSCI Europe
MSCI US
MSCI Japan
MSCI Pacific, ex JP
MSCI Emerging Markets
Alternatives
REITS, developed markets
Hedge Funds UCITS Index (HFRUHFC) Bloomberg Commodities, USD
Gold, USD
Currencies vs EUR
USD
GBP
CHF
NOK
SEK
JPY
AUD
YTD March
- 10 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
RISK MONITOR
Growth risks have taken center stage. With global tions have declined significantly. Monetary tighten- PMIs dropping drastically a recession has become ing risks have basically vanished as central banks reality. Since the peak of the crisis, around 20 around the world inject large amounts of liquidity March, systemic risks and implied volatilities deinto the markets. clined, but clearly remain elevated. Equity valua- Fig. 32: IMT Risk Monitor
24 Dec 2018: Growth and monetary tightening fears 09 Feb 2018: Inflation fear and technical correction Systemic
Political risk index
Implied volatility
Monetary tightening
Credit
Inflation
Equity valuations
Growth
9-Apr-20
24-Dec-18
9-Feb-18
Max risk score: 10
Low risk score: 1
- 11 -
IMT Asset Management AG
Investment Outlook 04.2020
DISCLAIMER
This document is for information purposes only and liable for any direct, indirect or incidental loss inis not a solicitation of an offer or a recommendation curred on the basis of the information in this docuto buy or sell any investment instruments or to enment and/or on the risks inherent in financial margage in other transactions. This document contains kets. Investment in financial products should be done data and information, which are prepared by IMT Asonly after carefully reading the relevant legal requireset Management AG. Although IMT Asset Managements, including sales restrictions or any other risk ment AG takes care to ensure that the information in factors. Any opinions represented in this document this document is correct at the time it was collected, solely reflect those of IMT Asset Management AG or IMT Asset Management AG neither explicitly nor imspecified third-party authors at the time of publicaplicitly provides any assurance or guarantee of accution (subject to modifications). The services menracy, reliability or completeness, and assumes no liationed in this document are addressed exclusively to bility or responsibility for either its own or for thirdclients of IMT Asset Management AG. party publications. IMT Asset Management AG is not Source for all graphs: Bloomberg, IMT Asset Management AG. - 12 -

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